2011 Display Device Price Freefall

Market Report on Used and Refurbished LCDs

The used CRT display device market has been on a slide for some time.  We have one of the only, and best, CRT refurbishing factory account purchase orders (which includes certified recycling of incidental breakage and parts recycling).  But the orders there have been cut from 180,000 units per month in 2006 to 5,000 units per month in 2011.

Part of that pressure comes from supplies from within Asia itself.   Office buildings in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, Taipei, Seoul, and Jakarta were replacing their working CRTs in mass between 2008-2010.   Even steady demand in Africa, South America, and the Mideast was fulfilled cheaply by Asian supply.  Shipping from the East Coast of the USA through the Panama Canal, across the Pacific, for refurbishing in Indonesia, and shipping back to Egypt... that was more expensive than refurbishing locally for export.

That, by the way, was one of the big factors to the "California Compromise" collapsing a year ago this month.  While BAN and California explored the idea of setting high standards for Asian Refurbishers to meet, the Asians decided it was too little, too late.

Now, the same thing is happening with used LCD prices.   Below is an excerpt from one of my favorite, Taiwan-based trade journals.  Today there is oversupply in the large (new) LCD market causing layoffs and work stoppages, and some factories are going back to cutting LCDs into smaller sizes and targeting the same emerging markets as refurbishers.

Butterfly Effects: Watchdog Who Trod On Loaf

Tomorrow's Sunday Sermon is drawn from Hans Christian Anderson's Tale, "The Girl Who Trod On The Loaf".  O E-Waste Activists... There will be gnashing.of.teeth@hell !
"There was once a girl who trod on a loaf to avoid soiling her shoes, and the misfortunes that happened to her in consequence are well known. ...[S]he was a poor child, but proud and presuming, and with a bad and cruel disposition. When quite a little child she would delight in catching flies, and tearing off their wings, so as to make creeping things of them.
If you have never read Hans Christian Anderson, don't start your kids with this tale.  I read it at age 10, and it has always been on my short list of nightmares.  It's a story about a girl named Ingen, from humble beginnings, who finds fortune from a wealthy woman, but who begins to look down on other dirty people and to set herself above them.   She is given a loaf of bread to bring to her hungry parents, but rather than take a long route, uses the loaf to cross a mud puddle.  She sinks into a 3 page Bosch painting of hell, which is mainly populated by things that disgusted her and things she did which made the world more disgusting.  She hears the world above, and is shocked by her own reputation, even among those she thought admired her.  She is finally freed, long after everyone she knew is gone, by a girl crying for her, which triggers Ingen to weep.  At first she weeps for herself, which doesn't free her...  It is only when the girl that cried is an old woman, and she remembers Ingen again, that Ingen cries for someone besides herself...

Despite tales of "collateral damage", there is never a tear of remorse from BAN, from NRDC, from CBS... not even a  Platonic Apology.  The E-Waste Priory, with shiny consciences, robed in green, sing their own praises to Euro idealists.   Before them, on a leash, they show the muddy poster orphan.   Knowing his place, he never speaks a word, never asks for a share of the royalty on his photos.  Geeks of color are unlikely to sue.  Maybe they were kinda polluters anyway...

Monarch Butterfly, wingless by ~dudecon on deviantART
The Priory's anti-ewaste campaign against Butterfly Geeks repeats a tired dynamic.  Overstate the problem, omit data, mount a poster child, attract funding from industrial complex (shredders, anti-gray-market, dictators), tax citizens, destroy value, and arrest bad examples.  It retraces wrong steps society has taken before, from witch trials to segregation to lynching... all means to a noble end.  Through withdrawn import permits and seized sea containers, they pull apart, shredding the wings of the refurbishing industry.

In the long run, those NGOs rationalize, their standard will bring better jobs, better lives, and less pollution (at least to refurbishers, if not to mining communities).  They are very, very certain of their moral path.  From the safety of their cathedral, their Green See offices, they care about the muddy people, and their brand of compassion betters the world in the long run.  They go on "waste tourism" trips, snap shots of the unwashed,.  They wish and aspire on the recycling ghetto's behalf, that they will "leapfrog" to a shiny city on a hill, and grow back more beautiful wings. Like the PTL Club prays for gays to become straight.

What is really bringing significant value to the "ghettos"?  Reuse and refurb of high tech equipment.
"Third-party companies have built $100+ million per year businesses in buying used computer equipment, refurbishing it, and selling or leasing it out to someone else"  [CBRonline.com 2005]
Or, from our Tale,
"...Her mistress said, “you ought to go home again, and visit your parents, Inge, and I will give you a large wheaten loaf to take to them, they will be glad to see you, I am sure.”
The Watchdogs are very sensitive to public revelations of unintended consequences.  Lip service - that "the perfect not be the enemy of the good".  But they are very, very proud of the e-steward certification, the "perfect" recycling standard they have laid claim to.   They say it is the only "legal" standard, but charge you money just to look at it.
"So Inge put on her best clothes, and her new shoes, drew her dress up around her, and set out, stepping very carefully, that she might be clean and neat about the feet, and there was nothing wrong in doing so. But when she came to the place where the footpath led across the moor, she found small pools of water, and a great deal of mud, so she threw the loaf into the mud, and trod upon it, that she might pass without wetting her feet. 
They select an end point, a recycler who pays for the endorsement.  Those who pay expect to see repercussions on their competitors.  So BAN.org runs with a story that the large, sustainable, non-mining, ISO, recycling, white box factories are "illegal" and "polluting".  Their end point justifies the means.
"But just as she placed one foot on the bread and lifted the other up, the loaf sank in deeper and deeper, carrying her down until she disappeared entirely, and nothing could be seen but a black, bubbling pool! That's the story."
I speak for the geeks
The anti-recycling publicity (recycler bites environment) creates cognitive risk in the environmental community, leading to wild goose chases of "waste tourism".  Shredding companies financially benefit.  Planned Obsolescence interests benefit.  Environmentalists: what happened to organized religion, what has happened in medicine, and what has happened in vigilante lynch mobs, could happen to us.   Our higher power of best intentions, our spiritual materialism, may lead us to trod on a loaf if it gets us to our destination and is more convenient than getting our feet wet in the actual "murky" market of the emerging economies.  Anxiously seeking to prosecute, without benefit of diagnosis, is reckless.  Like a cub scout applying a tourniquet, E-Stewards need med schooling.

Any well-meaning misdiagnosis does more harm than good.  It leads eventually to backlash, to Tea Party distrust of regulatory immunizations.  It can lead to distrust of even enormously beneficial policies - like the end of leaded gasoline, which cut lead poisoning in urban children by more than 50%.
 "At least we meant well, we THOUGHT Indonesia was burning the computers" 
Our environmental community, from Silent Spring Garden Club to 350.org, must see the passion we have harnessed as a weapon to be wielded carefully.


Primum non nocere



Why WR3A Certification (2007) Woulda Shoulda Coulda

R2 Certification and E-Stewards Certification Growing Pains:  Been There.

silver label for working, repairable, scrap, and dumping
The crybaby e-scrap companies, the public outings of single export loads, the fees to see non-published standards, the waffling by EPA over which standard to endorse... It's a category killer.  The public already discarded ewaste once, and is bound to lose interest if we don't prioritize our goals.   This week someone I know in our business got confused and thought a company in Chicago was "under indictment" (he got confused over the Executive Recycling Colorado indictment).  No, having BAN publicly end your application to be the best company ever does not result in prison.  What my friend's confusion illustrates is the perils of using "certifications" as a substitute for rule of law. We are all attracted to the idea of a simple solution to a complex, robust, multi-niche industry.  As the developer of an earlier fail-to-thrive certification program, I know.

WR3A 2011 Annual Meeting: Protect "E-Waste" Babies in the Bathwater






WR3A is  Keeping Recycling Exports Good for Environment, Democracy




As I prepare for the industries most important Electronics Recycling Events - the EScrap 2011 Conference (next week in Orlando, Florida), I'm preparing WR3A's most significant updates for the past year.

The WR3A Annual Meeting will be held at the Omni, in the Olympic Room, at 7:30-8:30 AM on Wednesday, October 5.  The chief item is how to bring overseas WR3A members "under the tent", to encourage partnerships with sister organizations in Malaysia, Europe, Africa, and Latin America.  If the organization doesn't have the financial stamina to "certify" overseas buyers (not even E-Stewards, TechSoup Global, or R2 have really come up with a solution affordable monitoring of faraway buyers), how do we protect the innocent without attracting "fast friends" among the reckless?

I hope everyone attending or visiting our booth has seen the three biggest WR3A recognitions of the past 6 months:


Interpol III: X Defense of Export Trade

Save the Internet Entrepreneurs!
"Laptops, Monitors, PCs, all free today"
"Concerning non-violence: it is criminal to teach a man not to defend himself when he is the constant victim of brutal attacks." - Malcom X




The 2009 Interpol E-Waste report author thinks the problem is about MONEY.  "Why do people do something illegal?  It must be for money!"   The report attacks everyone exporting anything, from family fly-and-buy internet cafe owners in Africa, to CRT cullet furnaces in Malaysia, to smelters in Canada. They came out and accused everybody except mining, incineration, and landfills.  It is a sick, sick, and twisted finish to a decade of racist and paternalistic poster child campaigns.  Enough.

As Lt. Columbo explained in the previous post:  Money is exchanged for VALUE.  The fact that someone paid for something is NOT evidence that something was done wrong.
  1. Criminals export junk electronics
  2. Wahab and Liu export electronics
  3. Therefore, Wahab and Li may be criminals
The report sets about looking at data, describes how importers like our Wahab buy used computers with money, and implies the money is evidence that they are exporting junk.   Paying for something someone else is willing to sell, it is somehow suspicious.

Where does this type of logic lead us?
  1. Rapists have sex
  2. John and Mary had sex.
  3. Therefore, John and Mary may be rapists. 
Puritanical rules, such as "no exports" or "no export of intact units" are intended to discourage "inappropriate trading relationships".   But trade is not evidence of discard or theft - it is right between the goal posts.  You didn't steal it from me, I didn't dump it on you... we made a deal and traded.