War and Peace and the Global South

 This early morning blog is inspired by a couple of Fareed Zakaria analogies posted on X.

Spoiler: It's the Females and Youths, Stupid.

This one with General David Petraeus explains why Israel's Generals are splitting with Netanyahu.  If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there. Fareed and Petraeus describe America's success in uniting Sunnis and Shia Muslims in Iraq to counter the tribalist ISIS fear and threat-based war on "western civilization" / imposed democracy.

What America represents, at its best, is an alternative to tribalism. Melting iron and zinc together makes a stronger metal (steel) than either iron or zinc. The America "Melting Pot" analogy of the strength of immigration may well be over-plugged and can certainly be criticized for historical injustices, but it's not "wrong". The resentments of European tribes lasted far longer in Europe than their immigrants to the USA posted "Help Wanted: No Irish Need Apply". 

As this 2015 NYT article explains, in a review of classified ads from 1855 (ten years before the US Civil War, and during Bleeding Kansas), the employment discrimination was not just ethnic, but was also religious.  "Catholic" was interchangeable with "Irish" in job discrimination.  

Where the "Global South" has succeeded, an element of voluntary melting pot has been necessary, and where the north has waged economy-ruining wars - like Russia v. Ukraine - involuntary efforts to end tribes has been bad for everybody.

What brings hope is a future generation of 15 to 25 year olds who can envision post-tribal, post-lingual, post-religious, post-melanin (skin pigmentation) melting. And I am optimistic that the number of interracial, interreligious, intersectual, interlinguist, intertribal marriages are increasing the number of future 25 year olds able to see the potential wealth in places like Brazil and Nigeria.

Brazil and Nigeria have almost identical populations (220 million-ish), a long history of colonization and interrelations, etc., but Brazil's GDP is 1.92 Trillion and Nigeria's is just 473 billion. There is not much of a "guns germs and steel" case about terrain to explain the difference in these post-colonial economies, or much reason to attribute differences to UK vs Portuguese colonial history.

So, my theory is that the USA vs. Europe and Brazil vs. Nigeria 50-100 year history has more to do with post tribalism, post language division, than anything else. 

Within nations integrated by forced integration - like slavery in Brazil and the USA 150 years ago - or nations in Europe with immigration from past colonial "places" (I'm avoiding the word "nation" for a reason), there are lots of DEI racism talking points but many of us think it's obvious that those resentments have an expiration date.  Biden has problems with people of the age of 25 because the civil rights marches of the LBJ 1960s are past history. 

When China was turning from poorer-than-Africa in the 1960s to second-lartest-economy fifty years later in the 2010+s, I witnessed factories staffed by Cantonese Chinese, run by Taiwanese, financed by Hong Kong, and regulated by Han Chinese. Now of course there was a difference in form of government, freedom of speech, etc., but the tribal and religious and lingual difference between these Asian families was really a bigger deal (all shared a recent history of dictatorship). What I observed was a lot of people recognizing the economic growth from working together, putting their differences aside, and saying "this works".

That message, per General Petraeus and Fareed Zakaria, was critical in Iraq's success over ISIS, and will be crucial to Israel's success with the "place" of Palestine.  The challenge is much greater of course because of the central religious "identity", which is a form of tribalism.  But Israel needs to recognize that the number of 15-25 year olds in Palestine is increasing at a faster rate than Jewish 15-25 year olds, and their future optimism needs to revolve around economic progress, or it will revert to optimism over erasing "others".

A friend of mine in the USA, in his late 30s, was born in Cameroon, was orphaned as a boy and lived in a foster home. He made it to the USA and married a woman from Benin. Their children identify as African Americans, I presume.  Most of the Africans I work with today understand that slaves in the USA were a product of wars between African tribes. Divided against themselves, and given guns and rum, their differences were exploited. But slavery was African-on-African. There were never enough Europeans in Africa to catch and chain the predominantly male slaves. And the exportation of males probably made Africa ripe for male misogamy.  The integration of female rights - part of the melting pot that makes USA and Brazil more economically successful - is part of the melting pot. "Women need not apply" is just as destructive as a ban on Irish or a ban on muslims.

Optimistically, I think 15-25 year olds in Africa see that. 

Israel's plan for the post war Gaza should be primarily about women.

Slavery and suppression of women is thousands of years old and certainly pre-dates drawing lines on maps of places.  Societies which include women in the "melting pot" succeed. Whether we are smelting European tribes or refugees or post slavery or other diaspora, peace comes with economic success and hope. I am very hopeful for the global south.  And this is why religions that oppress women's rights depress me.